Cape Elizabeth School Enrollment: A Closer Look
The executive summary of school enrollment trends in Cape Elizabeth:
CESD enrollments are level and holding.
Enrollment is projected to increase in 2027 and continue to remain steady.
The population of Cape Elizabeth grew by 6.1% between the 2010 and 2020 census, a trend that shows no signs of slowing down. During the same time period, Cumberland County grew 9.2%.
A new school is a generational investment; it is expected to serve tens of thousands of students during its lifetime.
Cape Elizabeth has a history of under-sizing school buildings – an expensive and avoidable mistake.
The “Shrinking Enrollment” Myth
“Enrollment is declining. Why spend so much money now?” This question, one of our most frequently asked, is based on the common misconception that CESD enrollments are irrevocably declining and that, as such, we could save money by reducing the scope of the school project. This misconception is due to the intentional distortion and omission of facts by those who oppose this project.
So what is the real story with enrollment?
Cape Elizabeth School Enrollment: The Facts
Enrollment did fall from peak levels in the late ‘00s – but then flattened. In fact, CESD enrollment has held steady at +/- 1500 students for the last five years even with a global pandemic changing the educational environmental for all.
Enrollment figures aren’t produced by CESD, the School Board, or by supporters of the Middle Ground. They are produced by NESDEC – the nonprofit educational association dedicated to planning, management, and executive search services for member districts.
Enrollment prediction is a complicated process. In 2023, NESDEC projected increases beginning in 2027 and continuing to rise, with over 1620 students by the year 2033. In their newly released 2024 report, their projection includes an increase in 2027, but remaining steady beyond that.
“Enrollment projections are more reliable in Years #1-3 in the future. Projections four to ten years out may serve as a guide to future enrollments and are useful for planning purposes. ”
How is enrollment data used to determine building size?
Architect Lisa Sawin of Harriman explains the approach taken to “right-size” the school building during the January 25, 2024, SBAC Meeting.
She talked about the “flex” design that allows non-core classrooms (e.g., World Language, Special Education) to move around the building to an available wing since they are not tied to a particular grade level. This allows each wing to fluctuate between 5-7 core classrooms, building for flexibility without building for excess space:
Enrollment must be considered on a longer-term basis than ten years.
While a 10-year projection is woefully inadequate when it comes to the useful lifespan of a 60+ year investment, this data serves as a powerful rebuke to the assertion that our student body is actively shrinking and that well documented needs assessments are overstated.
Other Educational Considerations Beyond Enrollment
A difference of +/- 100 students districtwide represents +/- 7.7 students per grade level. The incremental savings of square footage reductions for differences of this magnitude are negligible – especially when considered on a per-household basis. The “shrinking enrollment myth” is designed to suggest the possibility of cost savings through design reduction. This idea is overstated at best and manipulative at worst.
2020 Census data shows that Cape Elizabeth has more children per household than most communities in Cumberland County. It also reflects an increase in the number of people per household. These points mirror national demographic trends — with an uptick of births after the great financial crisis resulting in an increase in school-aged children born during the boom decade that followed.
Cape Elizabeth’s Housing Diversity Study Committee expressed a commitment to adding an additional 125 new affordable homes and 50 accessory dwelling units to Cape Elizabeth’s housing supply. This growth would result in additional students for our district in the coming decades.
A new middle school can be expected to serve students for the coming 50, 60, 70 years or more — representing a potential 60,000+ Cape Elizabeth children over its lifespan. The piecemeal construction of the current middle school reflects our town’s 90-year history of under-sizing education infrastructure for the future. This has resulted in facilities with inconsistent systems that are costly to maintain and renovate. This is an expensive and avoidable mistake.
The potential for state mandated Public Preschool could result in additional capacity needs for CESD.
Cape Elizabeth recently hosted a webinar with the Maine Department of Education regarding school building standards. The webinar contained a wealth of interesting information. What jumped out? The DoE expressed an aversion to building schools that are designed to open at full capacity with no room to grow. They elaborated on the range of classroom size recommendations and the nature of sizing guidelines. Incidentally, they have also hired Harriman — the same firm that designed the Middle Ground — to help update state building standards to reflect post-COVID realities in nursing facilities, kitchens, and school storage. This project has been expertly designed with state standards in mind. As a long term investment, a school should be scaled to absorb rising and falling enrollments.
Whether we have 1500, 1600, or more students in our district, it is our community’s responsibility to provide that student population with a safe, modern, and effective teaching environment. Our current facilities are falling short and must be addressed. Additionally, we must ensure that our schools comply with federal laws such as the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) and the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA), guaranteeing accessibility and inclusivity for all students. It is vital that we create spaces where every student can thrive, regardless of their needs.
The Bottom Line on Cape Elizabeth School Enrollment
Claims that CESD enrollments are shrinking are demonstrably untrue. Enrollment has leveled in recent years. Enrollment is projected to increase in 2027 – even before the new middle school would open its doors to students and teachers. Other qualitative and quantitative considerations underscore the dangers of under sizing a school project.
What neighbors are saying…
